Grant Holmes is a Atlanta Braves SP projected for 278 fantasy points on 159.9 IP, 123 K, 3.5 ERA, 1.309 WHIP by the managr projection engine. Monte-Carlo outcome odds put an elite season at 0% and a bust at 14%.
Projection snapshot: 2026-09-28. Rebuilt daily.
Grant Holmes's 2026 projection is built on 160 innings as a full-time starter.
Across 3 seasons with meaningful innings, Holmes's biggest strikeout year came in 2025 at age 29: 123 strikeouts over 115 innings, with 4 wins. Innings across 2024, 2025 and 2026 ran 68, 115 and 152, a rising workload.
In 2026, Holmes's 3.44 ERA came in below a 5.05 expected ERA. Expected ERA is built from the quality of contact allowed rather than the runs that scored, so fewer runs crossed than that contact would usually produce.
Tracking data from 2026: Holmes struck out 17.9% of batters and walked 9.7%, a strikeout-minus-walk rate of 8.2 points, and hitters missed on 27.3% of their swings. Contact against Holmes averaged 91.5 mph off the bat, with an 8.9% barrel rate.
Holmes's projected range runs from a 264-point floor to a 444-point upside, around a 278-point median: a spread of 180 points, or 65% of the median.
By statistical profile, the closest comparisons to Holmes on the board are Janson Junk, David Peterson and Anthony Kay.
At 30, Holmes is in the age range where pitchers typically hold their skills, and the multi-year valuation applies little age adjustment.
This report is generated from the managr engine's 2026-09-28 snapshot and rebuilt daily.
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