Griffin Canning is a San Diego Padres SP+RP projected for 104 fantasy points on 92.5 IP, 90 K, 5.6 ERA, 1.515 WHIP by the managr projection engine. Monte-Carlo outcome odds put an elite season at 0% and a bust at 12%.
Projection snapshot: 2026-09-28. Rebuilt daily.
Griffin Canning's 2026 projection is built on 93 innings out of the bullpen.
Across 7 seasons with meaningful innings, Canning's biggest strikeout year came in 2023 at age 27: 139 strikeouts over 127 innings, with 7 wins. Innings across 2024, 2025 and 2026 ran 172, 76 and 89.
In 2026, Canning's 5.68 ERA ran above a 4.69 expected ERA. Expected ERA is built from the quality of contact allowed rather than the runs that scored, so the gap points to run prevention that was better than the ERA shows.
Tracking data from 2026: Canning struck out 22.3% of batters and walked 10.5%, a strikeout-minus-walk rate of 11.8 points, and hitters missed on 25.5% of their swings. Contact against Canning averaged 90.3 mph off the bat, with an 8.2% barrel rate.
Recent pitch tracking flags Canning's arsenal as trending down. Over the last 166 pitches, the whiff rate sits 10 points below and the called-strike-plus-whiff rate sits 8 points below Canning's own baseline. The engine applies a -6% adjustment to the rest-of-season projection for a move this size; the full-season projection is untouched.
Canning's projected range runs from a 98-point floor to a 144-point upside, around a 104-point median: a spread of 46 points, or 44% of the median.
By statistical profile, the closest comparisons to Canning on the board are Luis Castillo, Bryce Elder and Brad Lord.
At 30, Canning is in the age range where pitchers typically hold their skills, and the multi-year valuation applies little age adjustment.
This report is generated from the managr engine's 2026-09-28 snapshot and rebuilt daily.
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