Jake Bird is a Washington Nationals RP projected for 60 fantasy points on 41.1 IP, 44 K, 5.3 ERA, 1.429 WHIP by the managr projection engine. Monte-Carlo outcome odds put an elite season at 0% and a bust at 14%.
Projection snapshot: 2026-09-28. Rebuilt daily.
Jake Bird's 2026 projection is built on 41 innings out of the bullpen.
Across 5 seasons with meaningful innings, Bird's biggest strikeout year came in 2023 at age 27: 77 strikeouts over 89 innings, with 3 wins. Innings across 2024, 2025 and 2026 ran 40, 55 and 39.
Tracking data from 2026: Bird struck out 23.8% of batters and walked 7.6%, a strikeout-minus-walk rate of 16.2 points, and hitters missed on 27.1% of their swings. Contact against Bird averaged 89.0 mph off the bat, with an 8.8% barrel rate.
Bird's projected range runs from a 56-point floor to a 96-point upside, around a 60-point median: a spread of 40 points, or 67% of the median.
By statistical profile, the closest comparisons to Bird on the board are Graham Ashcraft, José Suarez and Jimmy Herget.
At 30, Bird is in the age range where pitchers typically hold their skills, and the multi-year valuation applies little age adjustment.
This report is generated from the managr engine's 2026-09-28 snapshot and rebuilt daily.
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Studies and awards - the research-side surfaces of the managr platform.
Live snapshot of the projection system.
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Final Value = Raw Projection × MasterConfidence × TeamContext. Each layer answers one question - no overlap.
Recency weighting: prior seasons contribute by recency (more recent = more weight) and sample size (more PA = more weight).
Shrinkage: observed rates regress toward position-specific population means by an amount inversely proportional to sample size. Catches small-sample outliers.
Quality-of-contact adjustments: xwOBA, barrel rate, and bat-tracking metrics replace luck-driven outcome stats with skill-driven ones.
PT modeling: projected PA is anchored to workload tier (full-time, regular, platoon, backup catcher) using historical role distributions.
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