Aaron Civale is a Chicago Cubs SP+RP projected for 158 fantasy points on 104 IP, 85 K, 4.2 ERA, 1.432 WHIP, 2 SV by the managr projection engine. Monte-Carlo outcome odds put an elite season at 0% and a bust at 14%.
Projection snapshot: 2026-10-18. Rebuilt daily.
Aaron Civale's 2026 projection is built on 104 innings out of the bullpen.
Across 8 seasons with meaningful innings, Civale's biggest strikeout year came in 2024 at age 29: 149 strikeouts over 161 innings, with 8 wins. Innings across 2024, 2025 and 2026 ran 161, 102 and 111.
In 2026, Civale's 4.20 ERA sat close to a 4.35 expected ERA, so the runs allowed matched the quality of contact.
Tracking data from 2026: Civale struck out 18.5% of batters and walked 7.1%, a strikeout-minus-walk rate of 11.4 points, and hitters missed on 20.7% of their swings. Contact against Civale averaged 88.5 mph off the bat, with an 8.0% barrel rate.
Civale's projected range runs from a 167-point floor to a 345-point upside, around a 174-point median: a spread of 178 points, or 102% of the median.
By statistical profile, the closest comparisons to Civale on the board are Tyler Phillips, Ryan Gusto and Reynaldo López.
At 31, Civale is at the age where velocity and durability become the leading risks for pitchers, and the multi-year valuation discounts later seasons accordingly.
This report is generated from the managr engine's 2026-10-18 snapshot and rebuilt daily.
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