Michael King is a San Diego Padres SP projected for 388 fantasy points on 195.5 IP, 169 K, 3.2 ERA, 1.184 WHIP by the managr projection engine. Monte-Carlo outcome odds put an elite season at 0% and a bust at 14%.
Projection snapshot: 2026-09-28. Rebuilt daily.
Michael King's 2026 projection is built on 195 innings as a full-time starter.
Across 7 seasons with meaningful innings, King's biggest strikeout year came in 2024 at age 29: 201 strikeouts over 174 innings, with 13 wins. Innings across 2024, 2025 and 2026 ran 174, 73 and 185, a rising workload.
In 2026, King's 3.21 ERA came in below a 4.42 expected ERA. Expected ERA is built from the quality of contact allowed rather than the runs that scored, so fewer runs crossed than that contact would usually produce.
Tracking data from 2026: King struck out 21.0% of batters and walked 9.2%, a strikeout-minus-walk rate of 11.8 points, and hitters missed on 24.5% of their swings. Contact against King averaged 87.0 mph off the bat, with an 8.2% barrel rate.
Recent pitch tracking flags King's arsenal as trending down. Over the last 377 pitches, the whiff rate sits 5 points below and the called-strike-plus-whiff rate sits 3 points below King's own baseline. The engine applies a -6% adjustment to the rest-of-season projection for a move this size; the full-season projection is untouched.
King's projected range runs from a 368-point floor to a 620-point upside, around a 388-point median: a spread of 252 points, or 65% of the median.
By statistical profile, the closest comparisons to King on the board are Walker Buehler, Eduardo Rodriguez and Robbie Ray.
At 31, King is at the age where velocity and durability become the leading risks for pitchers, and the multi-year valuation discounts later seasons accordingly.
This report is generated from the managr engine's 2026-09-28 snapshot and rebuilt daily.
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