Michael Soroka is a Arizona Diamondbacks SP projected for 271 fantasy points on 125.2 IP, 125 K, 3.5 ERA, 1.119 WHIP by the managr projection engine. Monte-Carlo outcome odds put an elite season at 1% and a bust at 11%.
Projection snapshot: 2026-09-28. Rebuilt daily.
Michael Soroka's 2026 projection is built on 125 innings as a starter.
Across 6 seasons with meaningful innings, Soroka's biggest strikeout year came in 2019 at age 21: 142 strikeouts over 175 innings, with 13 wins. Innings across 2024, 2025 and 2026 ran 80, 90 and 116, a rising workload.
In 2026, Soroka's 3.41 ERA came in below a 4.12 expected ERA. Expected ERA is built from the quality of contact allowed rather than the runs that scored, so fewer runs crossed than that contact would usually produce.
Tracking data from 2026: Soroka struck out 24.1% of batters and walked 6.1%, a strikeout-minus-walk rate of 18.0 points, and hitters missed on 23.0% of their swings. Contact against Soroka averaged 87.6 mph off the bat, with an 8.0% barrel rate.
Recent pitch tracking flags Soroka's arsenal as trending up. Over the last 308 pitches, the whiff rate sits 7 points above and the called-strike-plus-whiff rate sits 6 points above Soroka's own baseline. The engine applies a +6% adjustment to the rest-of-season projection for a move this size; the full-season projection is untouched.
Soroka's projected range runs from a 256-point floor to a 434-point upside, around a 271-point median: a spread of 178 points, or 66% of the median.
By statistical profile, the closest comparisons to Soroka on the board are Matthew Liberatore, Sean Manaea and Roki Sasaki.
At 28, Soroka is in the age range where pitchers typically hold their skills, and the multi-year valuation applies little age adjustment.
This report is generated from the managr engine's 2026-09-28 snapshot and rebuilt daily.
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