Tyler Rogers is a Toronto Blue Jays RP projected for 168 fantasy points on 74 IP, 42 K, 1.8 ERA, 1.165 WHIP, 5 SV by the managr projection engine. Monte-Carlo outcome odds put an elite season at 5% and a bust at 17%.
Projection snapshot: 2026-10-18. Rebuilt daily.
Tyler Rogers's 2026 projection is built on 74 innings as a closer. That role carries 5 projected saves.
Across 7 seasons with meaningful innings, Rogers's biggest strikeout year came in 2023 at age 32: 60 strikeouts over 74 innings, with 4 wins. Innings across 2024, 2025 and 2026 ran 70, 77 and 71.
In 2026, Rogers's 1.77 ERA came in below a 2.88 expected ERA. Expected ERA is built from the quality of contact allowed rather than the runs that scored, so fewer runs crossed than that contact would usually produce.
Tracking data from 2026: Rogers struck out 13.6% of batters and walked 7.5%, a strikeout-minus-walk rate of 6.1 points, and hitters missed on 14.5% of their swings. Contact against Rogers averaged 84.4 mph off the bat, with a 1.8% barrel rate.
Rogers's projected range runs from a 160-point floor to a 333-point upside, around a 168-point median: a spread of 173 points, or 103% of the median.
By statistical profile, the closest comparisons to Rogers on the board are Jakob Junis, John Schreiber and Paul Blackburn.
At 35, Rogers is at the age where velocity and durability become the leading risks for pitchers, and the multi-year valuation discounts later seasons accordingly.
This report is generated from the managr engine's 2026-10-18 snapshot and rebuilt daily.
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