Emilio Pagán is a Cincinnati Reds RP projected for 243 fantasy points on 45.8 IP, 48 K, 3.4 ERA, 1.036 WHIP, 26 SV by the managr projection engine. Monte-Carlo outcome odds put an elite season at 35% and a bust at 19%.
Projection snapshot: 2026-09-28. Rebuilt daily.
Emilio Pagán's 2026 projection is built on 46 innings as a closer. That role carries 26 projected saves.
Across 10 seasons with meaningful innings, Pagán's biggest strikeout year came in 2019 at age 28: 96 strikeouts over 70 innings, with 20 saves. Innings across 2024, 2025 and 2026 ran 38, 69 and 43.
In 2026, Pagán's 3.38 ERA sat close to a 3.42 expected ERA, so the runs allowed matched the quality of contact.
Tracking data from 2026: Pagán struck out 25.9% of batters and walked 6.3%, a strikeout-minus-walk rate of 19.6 points, and hitters missed on 25.9% of their swings. Contact against Pagán averaged 90.1 mph off the bat, with a 10.5% barrel rate.
Pagán's projected range runs from a 230-point floor to a 388-point upside, around a 243-point median: a spread of 158 points, or 65% of the median.
By statistical profile, the closest comparisons to Pagán on the board are Andrew Kittredge, Max Meyer and Tyler Kinley.
At 35, Pagán is at the age where velocity and durability become the leading risks for pitchers, and the multi-year valuation discounts later seasons accordingly.
This report is generated from the managr engine's 2026-09-28 snapshot and rebuilt daily.
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