Connor Brogdon is a RP projected for 34 fantasy points on 17 IP, 16 K, 5 ERA, 1.143 WHIP, 1 SV by the managr projection engine. Monte-Carlo outcome odds put an elite season at 0% and a bust at 17%.
Projection snapshot: 2026-09-28. Rebuilt daily.
Connor Brogdon's 2026 projection is built on 17 innings out of the bullpen.
Across 4 seasons with meaningful innings, Brogdon's biggest strikeout year came in 2021 at age 26: 50 strikeouts over 58 innings, with 5 wins. Innings across 2022, 2023 and 2025 ran 44, 29 and 47.
Brogdon's projected range runs from a 32-point floor to a 54-point upside, around a 34-point median: a spread of 22 points, or 65% of the median.
By statistical profile, the closest comparisons to Brogdon on the board are Ryan Thompson, Tony Santillan and Jonathan Hernández.
At 31, Brogdon is at the age where velocity and durability become the leading risks for pitchers.
This report is generated from the managr engine's 2026-09-28 snapshot and rebuilt daily.
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Run rankings to populate Market Edge.
Run rankings first.
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Studies and awards - the research-side surfaces of the managr platform.
Live snapshot of the projection system.
Backtest, parsimony, ablation, and benchmark - one synthesized report. Output renders in Validation.
Final Value = Raw Projection × MasterConfidence × TeamContext. Each layer answers one question - no overlap.
Recency weighting: prior seasons contribute by recency (more recent = more weight) and sample size (more PA = more weight).
Shrinkage: observed rates regress toward position-specific population means by an amount inversely proportional to sample size. Catches small-sample outliers.
Quality-of-contact adjustments: xwOBA, barrel rate, and bat-tracking metrics replace luck-driven outcome stats with skill-driven ones.
PT modeling: projected PA is anchored to workload tier (full-time, regular, platoon, backup catcher) using historical role distributions.
Monte Carlo: N simulated seasons per player using projected mean + uncertainty, producing P10 / P50 / P90 distribution and bust%.
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Walk-forward backtests, calibration quality, and benchmark comparisons. Run walk-forward first - most tools depend on its pair pool.
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Live pipeline status and data freshness.
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Last known status of each underlying data source.
Source status will appear once data has been refreshed.
Issues from the most recent data refresh, if any.
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MVP, Cy Young, Rookie of the Year - historical winners with their stats, plus model-predicted current-season winners.
Predictions from the current 2026 projection model. Top candidates per award based on projected fantasy points + advanced-stat underlying. League assignment from current team.
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Findings article + all-time top-100 performer leaderboard from every World Baseball Classic (2006-2026).
A growing collection of fantasy baseball studies. Each card opens a detail page with the methodology, the data sources, and (where the data exists today) live computed findings.
Active player injuries, refreshed from upstream sources.
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