Bryan Baker is a Tampa Bay Rays RP projected for 401 fantasy points on 66.5 IP, 67 K, 1.6 ERA, 0.945 WHIP, 43 SV by the managr projection engine. Monte-Carlo outcome odds put an elite season at 36% and a bust at 19%.
Projection snapshot: 2026-09-28. Rebuilt daily.
Bryan Baker's 2026 projection is built on 66 innings as a closer. That role carries 43 projected saves.
Across 5 seasons with meaningful innings, Baker's biggest strikeout year came in 2025 at age 30: 83 strikeouts over 69 innings, with 4 wins. Innings across 2024, 2025 and 2026 ran 23, 69 and 62, a rising workload.
In 2026, Baker's 1.44 ERA came in below a 3.08 expected ERA. Expected ERA is built from the quality of contact allowed rather than the runs that scored, so fewer runs crossed than that contact would usually produce.
Tracking data from 2026: Baker struck out 25.8% of batters and walked 9.0%, a strikeout-minus-walk rate of 16.8 points, and hitters missed on 27.2% of their swings. Contact against Baker averaged 87.0 mph off the bat, with a 7.0% barrel rate.
Baker's projected range runs from a 382-point floor to a 642-point upside, around a 401-point median: a spread of 260 points, or 65% of the median.
By statistical profile, the closest comparisons to Baker on the board are Yuki Matsui, Kevin Kelly and Kenley Jansen.
At 31, Baker is at the age where velocity and durability become the leading risks for pitchers, and the multi-year valuation discounts later seasons accordingly.
This report is generated from the managr engine's 2026-09-28 snapshot and rebuilt daily.
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