Luis Severino is a Athletics SP projected for 95 fantasy points on 62.7 IP, 65 K, 4.2 ERA, 1.467 WHIP by the managr projection engine. Monte-Carlo outcome odds put an elite season at 0% and a bust at 14%.
Projection snapshot: 2026-09-28. Rebuilt daily.
Luis Severino's 2026 projection is built on 63 innings as a starter.
Across 9 seasons with meaningful innings, Severino's biggest strikeout year came in 2017 at age 23: 230 strikeouts over 193 innings, with 14 wins. Innings across 2024, 2025 and 2026 ran 182, 163 and 63, a drop in workload worth weighing against the forecast.
In 2026, Severino's 4.16 ERA sat close to a 4.30 expected ERA, so the runs allowed matched the quality of contact.
Tracking data from 2026: Severino struck out 24.0% of batters and walked 11.4%, a strikeout-minus-walk rate of 12.6 points, and hitters missed on 23.0% of their swings. Contact against Severino averaged 88.8 mph off the bat, with an 8.7% barrel rate.
Severino's projected range runs from a 95-point floor to a 152-point upside, around a 95-point median: a spread of 57 points, or 60% of the median.
By statistical profile, the closest comparisons to Severino on the board are Victor Vodnik, George Soriano and Yusei Kikuchi.
At 32, Severino is at the age where velocity and durability become the leading risks for pitchers, and the multi-year valuation discounts later seasons accordingly.
This report is generated from the managr engine's 2026-09-28 snapshot and rebuilt daily.
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