Tomoyuki Sugano is a Colorado Rockies SP projected for 183 fantasy points on 162 IP, 103 K, 5.3 ERA, 1.318 WHIP by the managr projection engine. Monte-Carlo outcome odds put an elite season at 0% and a bust at 14%.
Projection snapshot: 2026-09-28. Rebuilt daily.
Tomoyuki Sugano's 2026 projection is built on 162 innings as a full-time starter.
Across 2 seasons with meaningful innings, Sugano's biggest strikeout year came in 2025 at age 35: 106 strikeouts over 157 innings, with 10 wins. Innings across 2025 and 2026 ran 157 and 154.
In 2026, Sugano's 5.37 ERA came in below a 6.35 expected ERA. Expected ERA is built from the quality of contact allowed rather than the runs that scored, so fewer runs crossed than that contact would usually produce.
Tracking data from 2026: Sugano struck out 14.6% of batters and walked 5.5%, a strikeout-minus-walk rate of 9.1 points, and hitters missed on 19.6% of their swings. Contact against Sugano averaged 91.0 mph off the bat, with an 11.7% barrel rate.
Recent pitch tracking flags Sugano's arsenal as trending up. Over the last 349 pitches, the whiff rate sits 8 points above and the called-strike-plus-whiff rate sits 2 points above Sugano's own baseline. The engine applies a +6% adjustment to the rest-of-season projection for a move this size; the full-season projection is untouched.
Sugano's projected range runs from a 172-point floor to a 362-point upside, around a 183-point median: a spread of 190 points, or 104% of the median.
By statistical profile, the closest comparisons to Sugano on the board are Seth Lugo, Anthony Kay and Janson Junk.
At 36, Sugano is at the age where velocity and durability become the leading risks for pitchers, and the multi-year valuation discounts later seasons accordingly.
This report is generated from the managr engine's 2026-09-28 snapshot and rebuilt daily.
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