Nick Martinez is a Tampa Bay Rays SP+RP projected for 363 fantasy points on 189.4 IP, 116 K, 3.1 ERA, 1.098 WHIP by the managr projection engine. Monte-Carlo outcome odds put an elite season at 3% and a bust at 15%.
Projection snapshot: 2026-09-28. Rebuilt daily.
Nick Martinez's 2026 projection is built on 189 innings as a full-time starter.
Across 8 seasons with meaningful innings, Martinez's biggest strikeout year came in 2024 at age 33: 116 strikeouts over 142 innings, with 10 wins. Innings across 2024, 2025 and 2026 ran 142, 166 and 180.
In 2026, Martinez's 3.10 ERA came in below a 3.98 expected ERA. Expected ERA is built from the quality of contact allowed rather than the runs that scored, so fewer runs crossed than that contact would usually produce.
Tracking data from 2026: Martinez struck out 15.1% of batters and walked 3.6%, a strikeout-minus-walk rate of 11.5 points, and hitters missed on 17.4% of their swings. Contact against Martinez averaged 87.0 mph off the bat, with a 6.8% barrel rate.
Recent pitch tracking flags Martinez's arsenal as trending down. Over the last 284 pitches, the whiff rate sits 2 points below and the called-strike-plus-whiff rate sits 3 points below Martinez's own baseline. The engine applies a -4% adjustment to the rest-of-season projection for a move this size; the full-season projection is untouched.
Martinez's projected range runs from a 346-point floor to a 581-point upside, around a 363-point median: a spread of 235 points, or 65% of the median.
By statistical profile, the closest comparisons to Martinez on the board are Michael Wacha, Seth Lugo and Andrew Abbott.
At 35, Martinez is at the age where velocity and durability become the leading risks for pitchers, and the multi-year valuation discounts later seasons accordingly.
This report is generated from the managr engine's 2026-09-28 snapshot and rebuilt daily.
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