Carlos Rodón is a New York Yankees SP projected for 225 fantasy points on 89.9 IP, 97 K, 2.7 ERA, 1.062 WHIP by the managr projection engine. Monte-Carlo outcome odds put an elite season at 31% and a bust at 13%.
Projection snapshot: 2026-09-28. Rebuilt daily.
Carlos Rodón's 2026 projection is built on 90 innings as a starter.
Across 11 seasons with meaningful innings, Rodón's biggest strikeout year came in 2022 at age 29: 237 strikeouts over 178 innings, with 14 wins. Innings across 2024, 2025 and 2026 ran 175, 195 and 84, a drop in workload worth weighing against the forecast.
In 2026, Rodón's 2.67 ERA came in below a 3.89 expected ERA. Expected ERA is built from the quality of contact allowed rather than the runs that scored, so fewer runs crossed than that contact would usually produce.
Tracking data from 2026: Rodón struck out 26.8% of batters and walked 11.2%, a strikeout-minus-walk rate of 15.6 points, and hitters missed on 30.0% of their swings. Contact against Rodón averaged 89.9 mph off the bat, with a 6.8% barrel rate.
Recent pitch tracking flags Rodón's arsenal as trending up. Over the last 380 pitches, the whiff rate sits 5 points above and the called-strike-plus-whiff rate sits 5 points above Rodón's own baseline. The engine applies a +6% adjustment to the rest-of-season projection for a move this size; the full-season projection is untouched.
Rodón's projected range runs from a 213-point floor to a 445-point upside, around a 225-point median: a spread of 232 points, or 103% of the median.
By statistical profile, the closest comparisons to Rodón on the board are Gerrit Cole, Abner Uribe and Logan Webb.
At 33, Rodón is at the age where velocity and durability become the leading risks for pitchers, and the multi-year valuation discounts later seasons accordingly.
This report is generated from the managr engine's 2026-09-28 snapshot and rebuilt daily.
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