Colin Rea is a Chicago Cubs SP+RP projected for 220 fantasy points on 143.5 IP, 106 K, 4.3 ERA, 1.323 WHIP, 2 SV by the managr projection engine. Monte-Carlo outcome odds put an elite season at 1% and a bust at 15%.
Projection snapshot: 2026-09-28. Rebuilt daily.
Colin Rea's 2026 projection is built on 144 innings as a full-time starter.
Across 6 seasons with meaningful innings, Rea's biggest strikeout year came in 2024 at age 33: 135 strikeouts over 168 innings, with 12 wins. Innings across 2024, 2025 and 2026 ran 168, 159 and 137.
In 2026, Rea's 4.34 ERA came in below a 5.37 expected ERA. Expected ERA is built from the quality of contact allowed rather than the runs that scored, so fewer runs crossed than that contact would usually produce.
Tracking data from 2026: Rea struck out 17.2% of batters and walked 8.0%, a strikeout-minus-walk rate of 9.2 points, and hitters missed on 19.8% of their swings. Contact against Rea averaged 90.0 mph off the bat, with a 10.2% barrel rate.
Rea's projected range runs from a 208-point floor to a 435-point upside, around a 220-point median: a spread of 227 points, or 103% of the median.
By statistical profile, the closest comparisons to Rea on the board are Kyle Leahy, Anthony Kay and Janson Junk.
At 35, Rea is at the age where velocity and durability become the leading risks for pitchers, and the multi-year valuation discounts later seasons accordingly.
This report is generated from the managr engine's 2026-09-28 snapshot and rebuilt daily.
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