Adrian Houser is a San Francisco Giants SP+RP projected for 157 fantasy points on 109.7 IP, 75 K, 4 ERA, 1.304 WHIP by the managr projection engine. Monte-Carlo outcome odds put an elite season at 0% and a bust at 13%.
Projection snapshot: 2026-09-28. Rebuilt daily.
Adrian Houser's 2026 projection is built on 110 innings as a starter.
Across 8 seasons with meaningful innings, Houser's biggest strikeout year came in 2019 at age 26: 117 strikeouts over 111 innings, with 6 wins. Innings across 2024, 2025 and 2026 ran 69, 125 and 110.
In 2026, Houser's 4.02 ERA came in below a 4.95 expected ERA. Expected ERA is built from the quality of contact allowed rather than the runs that scored, so fewer runs crossed than that contact would usually produce.
Tracking data from 2026: Houser struck out 16.0% of batters and walked 7.2%, a strikeout-minus-walk rate of 8.8 points, and hitters missed on 18.1% of their swings. Contact against Houser averaged 89.7 mph off the bat, with an 8.7% barrel rate.
Recent pitch tracking flags Houser's arsenal as trending up. Over the last 266 pitches, the whiff rate is level with and the called-strike-plus-whiff rate sits 5 points above Houser's own baseline. The engine applies a +4% adjustment to the rest-of-season projection for a move this size; the full-season projection is untouched.
Houser's projected range runs from a 157-point floor to a 311-point upside, around a 157-point median: a spread of 154 points, or 98% of the median.
By statistical profile, the closest comparisons to Houser on the board are Martín Pérez, Jakob Junis and Wandy Peralta.
At 33, Houser is at the age where velocity and durability become the leading risks for pitchers, and the multi-year valuation discounts later seasons accordingly.
This report is generated from the managr engine's 2026-09-28 snapshot and rebuilt daily.
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