Clay Holmes is a Chicago Cubs SP projected for 193 fantasy points on 107.7 IP, 82 K, 3.3 ERA, 1.199 WHIP by the managr projection engine. Monte-Carlo outcome odds put an elite season at 0% and a bust at 13%.
Projection snapshot: 2026-09-28. Rebuilt daily.
Clay Holmes's 2026 projection is built on 108 innings as a starter.
Across 8 seasons with meaningful innings, Holmes's biggest strikeout year came in 2025 at age 32: 129 strikeouts over 166 innings, with 12 wins. Innings across 2024, 2025 and 2026 ran 63, 166 and 101.
In 2026, Holmes's 3.29 ERA came in below a 3.87 expected ERA. Expected ERA is built from the quality of contact allowed rather than the runs that scored, so fewer runs crossed than that contact would usually produce.
Tracking data from 2026: Holmes struck out 18.6% of batters and walked 10.0%, a strikeout-minus-walk rate of 8.6 points, and hitters missed on 21.9% of their swings. Contact against Holmes averaged 89.5 mph off the bat, with a 4.4% barrel rate.
Holmes's projected range runs from a 183-point floor to a 382-point upside, around a 193-point median: a spread of 199 points, or 103% of the median.
By statistical profile, the closest comparisons to Holmes on the board are Colin Rea, Erick Fedde and Nick Lodolo.
At 33, Holmes is at the age where velocity and durability become the leading risks for pitchers, and the multi-year valuation discounts later seasons accordingly.
This report is generated from the managr engine's 2026-09-28 snapshot and rebuilt daily.
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