Luke Weaver is a Pittsburgh Pirates RP projected for 172 fantasy points on 64 IP, 70 K, 2.7 ERA, 0.979 WHIP, 1 SV by the managr projection engine. Monte-Carlo outcome odds put an elite season at 5% and a bust at 17%.
Projection snapshot: 2026-09-28. Rebuilt daily.
Luke Weaver's 2026 projection is built on 64 innings out of the bullpen.
Across 11 seasons with meaningful innings, Weaver's biggest strikeout year came in 2018 at age 24: 121 strikeouts over 136 innings, with 7 wins. Innings across 2024, 2025 and 2026 ran 84, 65 and 60.
In 2026, Weaver's 2.69 ERA came in below a 3.08 expected ERA. Expected ERA is built from the quality of contact allowed rather than the runs that scored, so fewer runs crossed than that contact would usually produce.
Tracking data from 2026: Weaver struck out 27.3% of batters and walked 6.7%, a strikeout-minus-walk rate of 20.6 points, and hitters missed on 30.3% of their swings. Contact against Weaver averaged 88.3 mph off the bat, with a 7.8% barrel rate.
Weaver's projected range runs from a 163-point floor to a 340-point upside, around a 172-point median: a spread of 177 points, or 103% of the median.
By statistical profile, the closest comparisons to Weaver on the board are Gregory Soto, Tyler Glasnow and Aroldis Chapman.
At 32, Weaver is at the age where velocity and durability become the leading risks for pitchers, and the multi-year valuation discounts later seasons accordingly.
This report is generated from the managr engine's 2026-09-28 snapshot and rebuilt daily.
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