Frankie Montas is a SP projected for 0 fantasy points on 0 IP, 0 K, 4.9 ERA, 1.455 WHIP by the managr projection engine. Monte-Carlo outcome odds put an elite season at 0% and a bust at 16%.
Projection snapshot: 2026-10-18. Rebuilt daily.
Across 8 seasons with meaningful innings, Montas's biggest strikeout year came in 2021 at age 28: 207 strikeouts over 187 innings, with 13 wins. Innings across 2022, 2024 and 2025 ran 144, 151 and 39, a drop in workload worth weighing against the forecast.
Tracking data from 2025: Montas struck out 18.0% of batters and walked 7.9%, a strikeout-minus-walk rate of 10.1 points, and hitters missed on 23.8% of their swings. Contact against Montas averaged 88.5 mph off the bat, with an 11.5% barrel rate.
Montas's projected range runs from a 120-point floor to a 160-point upside, around a 138-point median: a spread of 40 points, or 29% of the median.
By statistical profile, the closest comparisons to Montas on the board are Ian Anderson, Kendall Graveman and Kyle Gibson.
At 33, Montas is at the age where velocity and durability become the leading risks for pitchers.
This report is generated from the managr engine's 2026-10-18 snapshot and rebuilt daily.
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Run rankings to populate Market Edge.
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Studies and awards - the research-side surfaces of the managr platform.
Live snapshot of the projection system.
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Final Value = Raw Projection × MasterConfidence × TeamContext. Each layer answers one question - no overlap.
Recency weighting: prior seasons contribute by recency (more recent = more weight) and sample size (more PA = more weight).
Shrinkage: observed rates regress toward position-specific population means by an amount inversely proportional to sample size. Catches small-sample outliers.
Quality-of-contact adjustments: xwOBA, barrel rate, and bat-tracking metrics replace luck-driven outcome stats with skill-driven ones.
PT modeling: projected PA is anchored to workload tier (full-time, regular, platoon, backup catcher) using historical role distributions.
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Last known status of each underlying data source.
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