Robbie Ray is a San Diego Padres SP projected for 307 fantasy points on 174.8 IP, 148 K, 3.6 ERA, 1.348 WHIP by the managr projection engine. Monte-Carlo outcome odds put an elite season at 5% and a bust at 14%.
Projection snapshot: 2026-09-28. Rebuilt daily.
Robbie Ray's 2026 projection is built on 175 innings as a full-time starter.
Across 11 seasons with meaningful innings, Ray's biggest strikeout year came in 2021 at age 29: 248 strikeouts over 193 innings, with 13 wins. Innings across 2024, 2025 and 2026 ran 31, 182 and 166, a rising workload.
In 2026, Ray's 3.59 ERA came in below a 4.82 expected ERA. Expected ERA is built from the quality of contact allowed rather than the runs that scored, so fewer runs crossed than that contact would usually produce.
Tracking data from 2026: Ray struck out 19.9% of batters and walked 12.0%, a strikeout-minus-walk rate of 7.9 points, and hitters missed on 24.6% of their swings. Contact against Ray averaged 89.2 mph off the bat, with an 8.0% barrel rate.
Ray's projected range runs from a 291-point floor to a 491-point upside, around a 307-point median: a spread of 200 points, or 65% of the median.
By statistical profile, the closest comparisons to Ray on the board are José Soriano, Framber Valdez and Eduardo Rodriguez.
At 34, Ray is at the age where velocity and durability become the leading risks for pitchers, and the multi-year valuation discounts later seasons accordingly.
This report is generated from the managr engine's 2026-09-28 snapshot and rebuilt daily.
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