Luke Jackson is a RP projected for 0 fantasy points on 0 IP, 0 K, 4.3 ERA, 1.448 WHIP by the managr projection engine. Monte-Carlo outcome odds put an elite season at 13% and a bust at 18%.
Projection snapshot: 2026-10-18. Rebuilt daily.
Across 8 seasons with meaningful innings, Jackson's biggest strikeout year came in 2019 at age 27: 106 strikeouts over 73 innings, with 18 saves. Innings across 2023, 2024 and 2025 ran 33, 53 and 51.
In 2025, Jackson's 4.06 ERA sat close to a 4.30 expected ERA, so the runs allowed matched the quality of contact.
Tracking data from 2025: Jackson struck out 17.4% of batters and walked 12.8%, a strikeout-minus-walk rate of 4.6 points, and hitters missed on 22.7% of their swings. Contact against Jackson averaged 90.8 mph off the bat, with a 6.7% barrel rate.
Jackson's projected range runs from a 146-point floor to a 329-point upside, around a 148-point median: a spread of 183 points, or 124% of the median.
By statistical profile, the closest comparisons to Jackson on the board are Jorge López, Steven Wilson and Rafael Montero.
At 34, Jackson is at the age where velocity and durability become the leading risks for pitchers.
This report is generated from the managr engine's 2026-10-18 snapshot and rebuilt daily.
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Run rankings to populate Market Edge.
Run rankings first.
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Studies and awards - the research-side surfaces of the managr platform.
Live snapshot of the projection system.
Backtest, parsimony, ablation, and benchmark - one synthesized report. Output renders in Validation.
Final Value = Raw Projection × MasterConfidence × TeamContext. Each layer answers one question - no overlap.
Recency weighting: prior seasons contribute by recency (more recent = more weight) and sample size (more PA = more weight).
Shrinkage: observed rates regress toward position-specific population means by an amount inversely proportional to sample size. Catches small-sample outliers.
Quality-of-contact adjustments: xwOBA, barrel rate, and bat-tracking metrics replace luck-driven outcome stats with skill-driven ones.
PT modeling: projected PA is anchored to workload tier (full-time, regular, platoon, backup catcher) using historical role distributions.
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Tune component weights against historical seasons. Stored in session.
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Walk-forward backtests, calibration quality, and benchmark comparisons. Run walk-forward first - most tools depend on its pair pool.
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Last known status of each underlying data source.
Source status will appear once data has been refreshed.
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Active player injuries, refreshed from upstream sources.
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