Kevin Gausman is a Chicago Cubs SP projected for 325 fantasy points on 186.8 IP, 193 K, 4.5 ERA, 1.267 WHIP by the managr projection engine. Monte-Carlo outcome odds put an elite season at 13% and a bust at 17%.
Projection snapshot: 2026-09-28. Rebuilt daily.
Kevin Gausman's 2026 projection is built on 187 innings as a full-time starter.
Across 12 seasons with meaningful innings, Gausman's biggest strikeout year came in 2023 at age 32: 237 strikeouts over 185 innings, with 12 wins. Innings across 2024, 2025 and 2026 ran 181, 193 and 178.
In 2026, Gausman's 4.51 ERA ran above a 4.03 expected ERA. Expected ERA is built from the quality of contact allowed rather than the runs that scored, so the gap points to run prevention that was better than the ERA shows.
Tracking data from 2026: Gausman struck out 24.5% of batters and walked 6.3%, a strikeout-minus-walk rate of 18.2 points, and hitters missed on 27.7% of their swings. Contact against Gausman averaged 88.9 mph off the bat, with a 7.7% barrel rate.
Recent pitch tracking flags Gausman's arsenal as trending up. Over the last 392 pitches, the whiff rate sits 7 points above and the called-strike-plus-whiff rate sits 3 points above Gausman's own baseline. The engine applies a +6% adjustment to the rest-of-season projection for a move this size; the full-season projection is untouched.
Gausman's projected range runs from a 307-point floor to a 521-point upside, around a 325-point median: a spread of 214 points, or 66% of the median.
By statistical profile, the closest comparisons to Gausman on the board are Aaron Nola, MacKenzie Gore and Freddy Peralta.
At 35, Gausman is at the age where velocity and durability become the leading risks for pitchers, and the multi-year valuation discounts later seasons accordingly.
This report is generated from the managr engine's 2026-09-28 snapshot and rebuilt daily.
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