Kyle Farmer is a Atlanta Braves 3B/2B projected for 5 fantasy points on 2 R, 3 RBI, 0 SB by the managr projection engine. Monte-Carlo outcome odds put an elite season at 0% and a bust at 19%.
Projection snapshot: 2026-10-18. Rebuilt daily.
Kyle Farmer's 2026 projection is built on 20 plate appearances in a limited role. Farmer bats right-handed.
Across 8 seasons of regular playing time, Farmer's most productive came in 2022 at age 31: 203 total bases, 78 RBI and 58 runs over 583 plate appearances. Plate appearances across 2023, 2024 and 2025 ran 369, 242 and 300.
In 2025, Farmer's results tracked the quality of contact closely: a .282 wOBA against a .285 expected wOBA.
From 2024 to 2025, Farmer's walk rate fell from 7.9% to 5.7%.
The 2026 projection for Farmer is minimal, around a 5-point median, so this season carries little fantasy value to weigh.
By statistical profile, the closest comparisons to Farmer on the board are Riley Adams, Gavin Lux and Jeimer Candelario.
At 35, Farmer is past the typical hitting peak.
This report is generated from the managr engine's 2026-10-18 snapshot and rebuilt daily.
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Run rankings to populate Market Edge.
Run rankings first.
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Studies and awards - the research-side surfaces of the managr platform.
Live snapshot of the projection system.
Backtest, parsimony, ablation, and benchmark - one synthesized report. Output renders in Validation.
Final Value = Raw Projection × MasterConfidence × TeamContext. Each layer answers one question - no overlap.
Recency weighting: prior seasons contribute by recency (more recent = more weight) and sample size (more PA = more weight).
Shrinkage: observed rates regress toward position-specific population means by an amount inversely proportional to sample size. Catches small-sample outliers.
Quality-of-contact adjustments: xwOBA, barrel rate, and bat-tracking metrics replace luck-driven outcome stats with skill-driven ones.
PT modeling: projected PA is anchored to workload tier (full-time, regular, platoon, backup catcher) using historical role distributions.
Monte Carlo: N simulated seasons per player using projected mean + uncertainty, producing P10 / P50 / P90 distribution and bust%.
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VAR: Value Above Replacement at the player's primary position. Replacement levels are floored per position so SS scarcity doesn't artificially inflate stable middle infielders.
Tune component weights against historical seasons. Stored in session.
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Walk-forward backtests, calibration quality, and benchmark comparisons. Run walk-forward first - most tools depend on its pair pool.
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Last known status of each underlying data source.
Source status will appear once data has been refreshed.
Issues from the most recent data refresh, if any.
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