Kyle Hendricks is a SP projected for 0 fantasy points on 0 IP, 0 K, 4.6 ERA, 1.361 WHIP by the managr projection engine. Monte-Carlo outcome odds put an elite season at 0% and a bust at 13%.
Projection snapshot: 2026-10-18. Rebuilt daily.
Across 11 seasons with meaningful innings, Hendricks's biggest strikeout year came in 2016 at age 26: 170 strikeouts over 190 innings, with 16 wins. Innings across 2023, 2024 and 2025 ran 137, 131 and 165.
In 2025, Hendricks's 4.76 ERA ran above a 3.90 expected ERA. Expected ERA is built from the quality of contact allowed rather than the runs that scored, so the gap points to run prevention that was better than the ERA shows.
Tracking data from 2025: Hendricks struck out 16.4% of batters and walked 6.2%, a strikeout-minus-walk rate of 10.2 points, and hitters missed on 18.3% of their swings. Contact against Hendricks averaged 86.1 mph off the bat, with an 8.3% barrel rate.
Hendricks's projected range runs from a 181-point floor to a 410-point upside, around a 210-point median: a spread of 229 points, or 109% of the median.
By statistical profile, the closest comparisons to Hendricks on the board are Austin Gomber, Josiah Gray and Logan Allen.
At 36, Hendricks is at the age where velocity and durability become the leading risks for pitchers.
This report is generated from the managr engine's 2026-10-18 snapshot and rebuilt daily.
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Shrinkage: observed rates regress toward position-specific population means by an amount inversely proportional to sample size. Catches small-sample outliers.
Quality-of-contact adjustments: xwOBA, barrel rate, and bat-tracking metrics replace luck-driven outcome stats with skill-driven ones.
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