Martín Pérez is a Atlanta Braves SP projected for 251 fantasy points on 142.1 IP, 102 K, 3 ERA, 1.275 WHIP by the managr projection engine. Monte-Carlo outcome odds put an elite season at 0% and a bust at 12%.
Projection snapshot: 2026-09-28. Rebuilt daily.
Martín Pérez's 2026 projection is built on 142 innings as a full-time starter.
Across 12 seasons with meaningful innings, Pérez's biggest strikeout year came in 2022 at age 31: 169 strikeouts over 196 innings, with 12 wins. Innings across 2024, 2025 and 2026 ran 135, 56 and 142, a rising workload.
In 2026, Pérez's 3.04 ERA came in below a 4.54 expected ERA. Expected ERA is built from the quality of contact allowed rather than the runs that scored, so fewer runs crossed than that contact would usually produce.
Tracking data from 2026: Pérez struck out 17.1% of batters and walked 10.4%, a strikeout-minus-walk rate of 6.7 points, and hitters missed on 21.1% of their swings. Contact against Pérez averaged 87.9 mph off the bat, with a 4.7% barrel rate.
Recent pitch tracking flags Pérez's arsenal as trending down. Over the last 344 pitches, the whiff rate sits 7 points below and the called-strike-plus-whiff rate sits 4 points below Pérez's own baseline. The engine applies a -6% adjustment to the rest-of-season projection for a move this size; the full-season projection is untouched.
Pérez's projected range runs from a 251-point floor to a 402-point upside, around a 251-point median: a spread of 151 points, or 60% of the median.
By statistical profile, the closest comparisons to Pérez on the board are Lucas Giolito, Caleb Ferguson and Adrian Houser.
At 35, Pérez is at the age where velocity and durability become the leading risks for pitchers, and the multi-year valuation discounts later seasons accordingly.
This report is generated from the managr engine's 2026-09-28 snapshot and rebuilt daily.
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