Justin Wilson is a RP projected for 0 fantasy points on 0 IP, 0 K, 3.8 ERA, 1.315 WHIP by the managr projection engine. Monte-Carlo outcome odds put an elite season at 0% and a bust at 17%.
Projection snapshot: 2026-10-18. Rebuilt daily.
Across 9 seasons with meaningful innings, Wilson's biggest strikeout year came in 2017 at age 29: 80 strikeouts over 58 innings, with 13 saves. Innings across 2021, 2024 and 2025 ran 34, 47 and 48.
In 2025, Wilson's 3.35 ERA sat close to a 3.61 expected ERA, so the runs allowed matched the quality of contact.
Tracking data from 2025: Wilson struck out 27.5% of batters and walked 9.7%, a strikeout-minus-walk rate of 17.8 points, and hitters missed on 31.9% of their swings. Contact against Wilson averaged 89.2 mph off the bat, with a 7.0% barrel rate.
Wilson's projected range runs from an 80-point floor to a 100-point upside, around a 95-point median: a spread of 20 points, or 21% of the median.
By statistical profile, the closest comparisons to Wilson on the board are Robert Stephenson, Shelby Miller and José Ruiz.
At 38, Wilson is at the age where velocity and durability become the leading risks for pitchers.
This report is generated from the managr engine's 2026-10-18 snapshot and rebuilt daily.
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Shrinkage: observed rates regress toward position-specific population means by an amount inversely proportional to sample size. Catches small-sample outliers.
Quality-of-contact adjustments: xwOBA, barrel rate, and bat-tracking metrics replace luck-driven outcome stats with skill-driven ones.
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