3 of 14 games have notable weather tonight.
3 of tonight's 14 games have weather worth a second look. The rest are playable and unremarkable, which is the normal state of a summer slate and the reason this only runs when there is something to say.
MIN, Target Field. 63% chance of rain, postponement risk
ATL, Truist Park. 91°F, warm air, the ball carries
HOU, Daikin Park. 94°F, warm air, the ball carries _Retractable roof, if it is closed, none of this reaches the field, and in heat like this it usually is._
| Game | Venue | Temp | Wind | Rain | Roof |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | Comerica Park | 80°F | 5 mph SSE | 4% | open |
| CHC | Wrigley Field | 76°F | 10 mph SSE | 37% | open |
| SF | Oracle Park | 61°F | 8 mph WSW | 0% | open |
| NYM | Citi Field | 83°F | 6 mph NE | 0% | open |
| TB | Tropicana Field | 92°F | 5 mph WNW | 9% | dome |
| CIN | Great American Ball Park | 85°F | 3 mph S | 37% | open |
| CLE | Progressive Field | 81°F | 5 mph SE | 14% | open |
| HOU | Daikin Park | 94°F | 10 mph S | 0% | retractable |
| MIN | Target Field | 81°F | 5 mph WSW | 63% | open |
| PIT | PNC Park | 81°F | 3 mph SE | 3% | open |
| ATL | Truist Park | 91°F | 5 mph NW | 8% | open |
| LAD | UNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium | 81°F | 10 mph SW | 0% | open |
| LAA | Angel Stadium | 77°F | 5 mph SW | 1% | open |
| ATH | Sutter Health Park | 82°F | 7 mph SW | 0% | open |
Temperature is the most reliable weather effect in baseball: warm air is less dense and the ball carries further. It is a real edge at the extremes and a rounding error between 70 and 80 degrees.
Wind is reported as a speed and a compass direction and deliberately left uninterpreted. Whether a south wind helps hitters depends entirely on which way the park faces, and that is not something this site knows, so the bearing is given as a fact rather than dressed up as a conclusion.
Rain probability is the one to act on in daily formats. A postponed game is a zero in your lineup, and that costs more than any carry effect gains.
Retractable-roof parks are flagged with a caveat rather than asserted. The feed reports the roof TYPE, never whether it is open tonight, and a park that shuts the roof at 100 degrees turns the loudest number on the board into no effect at all. Fixed domes are excluded outright.
Curated picks where the model has the highest decision conviction. Updated every render.
Run rankings to populate Market Edge.
Run rankings first.
Mark a player as drafted to get a recommendation.
Studies and awards - the research-side surfaces of the managr platform.
Live snapshot of the projection system.
Backtest, parsimony, ablation, and benchmark - one synthesized report. Output renders in Validation.
Final Value = Raw Projection × MasterConfidence × TeamContext. Each layer answers one question - no overlap.
Recency weighting: prior seasons contribute by recency (more recent = more weight) and sample size (more PA = more weight).
Shrinkage: observed rates regress toward position-specific population means by an amount inversely proportional to sample size. Catches small-sample outliers.
Quality-of-contact adjustments: xwOBA, barrel rate, and bat-tracking metrics replace luck-driven outcome stats with skill-driven ones.
PT modeling: projected PA is anchored to workload tier (full-time, regular, platoon, backup catcher) using historical role distributions.
Monte Carlo: N simulated seasons per player using projected mean + uncertainty, producing P10 / P50 / P90 distribution and bust%.
Confidence layers: four orthogonal multipliers: Roster (depth chart), Role (PT certainty), Sample (career PA), Market (consensus alignment). The Audit tab shows all four for every player.
VAR: Value Above Replacement at the player's primary position. Replacement levels are floored per position so SS scarcity doesn't artificially inflate stable middle infielders.
Tune component weights against historical seasons. Stored in session.
-
-
-
Walk-forward backtests, calibration quality, and benchmark comparisons. Run walk-forward first - most tools depend on its pair pool.
Projects every historical batter-season from prior data only. Reports RMSE, MAE, Spearman ρ, hit rates. Populates the pair pool other validators use.
Walk-forward over historical seasons. Reports RMSE, MAE, Spearman ρ, top-N hit rates.
Distribution, uncertainty, per-archetype performance, calibrated tiers, draft sim.
Load any rival projection or ADP source. Auto-detects player_name + rank / adp / projected.
Where the model finds value the market is missing.
Curated picks from current rankings.
Where the model has measurable advantage.
The safety layer. Realism, false-confidence, forensics - what to remove.
The most important governance tools. Output renders in Validation.
Per-era ablation, error clusters, bias, correlations, removals. Each tells you what to remove. Run walk-forward first.
The smallest model that retains predictive power. Every feature beats the burden of proof.
Live pipeline status and data freshness.
-
Last known status of each underlying data source.
Source status will appear once data has been refreshed.
Issues from the most recent data refresh, if any.
-
MVP, Cy Young, Rookie of the Year - historical winners with their stats, plus model-predicted current-season winners.
Predictions from the current 2026 projection model. Top candidates per award based on projected fantasy points + advanced-stat underlying. League assignment from current team.
Coaching rosters for every MLB team plus a multi-year Fantasy Points Above Average ranking of every MLB coach.
Findings article + all-time top-100 performer leaderboard from every World Baseball Classic (2006-2026).
A growing collection of fantasy baseball studies. Each card opens a detail page with the methodology, the data sources, and (where the data exists today) live computed findings.
Active player injuries, refreshed from upstream sources.
| Player | Team | Pos | Status | Explanation | Replacement |
|---|
Enter players for each side, one per line. Values use your scoring weights and injury-adjusted projections.
| Player | Pos | ProjPts | Status |
|---|
| Player | Pos | ProjPts | Status |
|---|
Every signal, formula, and data source the model uses for player evaluation - organized by product.
Configure your draft session. This stays on this device only.