13 roster moves in the last 3 days, 1 involving rosterable players.
13 roster moves in the last 3 days, 10 recalled, 3 selected. 6 of them involve a player the engine ranks at all, and 1 clear the value of the last rostered player in a 12-team league. That gap is the point of this piece: a transaction wire is not a fantasy story until someone checks which names on it you could actually use.
Ranked above roster-relevant value. A trade changes fantasy value through playing time and park, and the engine already prices both, so its own valuation is the right way to sort the wire.
| Player | Pos | Team | Move | Date | Value | Our rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emmet Sheehan | SP | LAD | Recalled | Sep 20 | 150 | #365 |
On the board, but below the line where a 12-team league rosters anyone. These are the ones to revisit if playing time opens up.
| Player | Pos | Team | Move | Date | Value | Our rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Hurt | RP | LAD | Recalled | Sep 20 | 47 | #663 |
| Tristan Beck | RP | SF | Recalled | Sep 20 | 19 | #1116 |
| Connor Phillips | RP | CIN | Recalled | Sep 22 | 15 | #1003 |
| River Ryan | P | DET | Recalled | Sep 21 | 6 | #1207 |
| Jace Jung | 2B/3B | DET | Recalled | Sep 21 | 4 | #1126 |
7 further moves involved players the engine does not rank. They are counted here and deliberately not listed, absence from the board is itself a projection, not an oversight.
Value is the replacement-adjusted number the boards sort on. Roughly 134 is the 300th-ranked player, so anything below it is a free agent in a standard league however loud the transaction was.
A trade matters to fantasy only insofar as it changes playing time or ballpark. The engine already prices both, which is why moves are ranked by valuation rather than by how prominent the name is.
This covers trades, recalls and contract selections, which is everything the transaction feed carries. Demotions, designations for assignment and suspensions are not in the source data and are not guessed at here.
Curated picks where the model has the highest decision conviction. Updated every render.
Run rankings to populate Market Edge.
Run rankings first.
Mark a player as drafted to get a recommendation.
Studies and awards - the research-side surfaces of the managr platform.
Live snapshot of the projection system.
Backtest, parsimony, ablation, and benchmark - one synthesized report. Output renders in Validation.
Final Value = Raw Projection × MasterConfidence × TeamContext. Each layer answers one question - no overlap.
Recency weighting: prior seasons contribute by recency (more recent = more weight) and sample size (more PA = more weight).
Shrinkage: observed rates regress toward position-specific population means by an amount inversely proportional to sample size. Catches small-sample outliers.
Quality-of-contact adjustments: xwOBA, barrel rate, and bat-tracking metrics replace luck-driven outcome stats with skill-driven ones.
PT modeling: projected PA is anchored to workload tier (full-time, regular, platoon, backup catcher) using historical role distributions.
Monte Carlo: N simulated seasons per player using projected mean + uncertainty, producing P10 / P50 / P90 distribution and bust%.
Confidence layers: four orthogonal multipliers: Roster (depth chart), Role (PT certainty), Sample (career PA), Market (consensus alignment). The Audit tab shows all four for every player.
VAR: Value Above Replacement at the player's primary position. Replacement levels are floored per position so SS scarcity doesn't artificially inflate stable middle infielders.
Tune component weights against historical seasons. Stored in session.
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Walk-forward backtests, calibration quality, and benchmark comparisons. Run walk-forward first - most tools depend on its pair pool.
Projects every historical batter-season from prior data only. Reports RMSE, MAE, Spearman ρ, hit rates. Populates the pair pool other validators use.
Walk-forward over historical seasons. Reports RMSE, MAE, Spearman ρ, top-N hit rates.
Distribution, uncertainty, per-archetype performance, calibrated tiers, draft sim.
Load any rival projection or ADP source. Auto-detects player_name + rank / adp / projected.
Where the model finds value the market is missing.
Curated picks from current rankings.
Where the model has measurable advantage.
The safety layer. Realism, false-confidence, forensics - what to remove.
The most important governance tools. Output renders in Validation.
Per-era ablation, error clusters, bias, correlations, removals. Each tells you what to remove. Run walk-forward first.
The smallest model that retains predictive power. Every feature beats the burden of proof.
Live pipeline status and data freshness.
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Last known status of each underlying data source.
Source status will appear once data has been refreshed.
Issues from the most recent data refresh, if any.
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MVP, Cy Young, Rookie of the Year - historical winners with their stats, plus model-predicted current-season winners.
Predictions from the current 2026 projection model. Top candidates per award based on projected fantasy points + advanced-stat underlying. League assignment from current team.
Coaching rosters for every MLB team plus a multi-year Fantasy Points Above Average ranking of every MLB coach.
Findings article + all-time top-100 performer leaderboard from every World Baseball Classic (2006-2026).
A growing collection of fantasy baseball studies. Each card opens a detail page with the methodology, the data sources, and (where the data exists today) live computed findings.
Active player injuries, refreshed from upstream sources.
| Player | Team | Pos | Status | Explanation | Replacement |
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Enter players for each side, one per line. Values use your scoring weights and injury-adjusted projections.
| Player | Pos | ProjPts | Status |
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| Player | Pos | ProjPts | Status |
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Every signal, formula, and data source the model uses for player evaluation - organized by product.
Configure your draft session. This stays on this device only.