Power Rankings, September 27

MIL lead by run differential; DET have the widest gap between their record and how they have played.

Ranked by run differential rather than by record, because that is the part that predicts the next month. A team's W-L is full of one-run games, and a one-run game is close to a coin flip; how many runs they score and allow is the signal underneath it. The league is averaging 4.48 runs a game, from 3.99 at the bottom to 5.24 at the top.

The rankings

Playing above their runs

These teams have a better record than their scoring and run prevention support. That gap is usually one-run luck and a good bullpen, and it is the part of a record least likely to continue.

Playing below their runs

The reverse, and the more useful half for fantasy: these lineups and staffs have been better than the standings suggest, so their hitters are the ones most likely to be under-valued by anyone reading the record.

Best and worst run environments

The fantasy read on a team ranking. Shares of a lineup scoring five and a half runs a game are worth more than the same player on a team scoring four, and the pitchers facing those lineups are worth less.

How to read this

Expected win percentage comes from runs scored and allowed, using the standard 1.83 exponent. It is a better guide to the next month than the standings are, which is the entire reason to rank teams this way rather than reprinting a table anyone can find.

The gap column is what the standings are crediting to luck. Across the league its median is essentially zero, so a team out at either tail has genuinely diverged from how it has played rather than drifted a little.

Runs per game is the column to use for fantasy. It is the team-level version of the same thing an implied total says about one night, and it is why a good hitter on a good offense outruns an equally good hitter on a bad one.

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