OF is the scarcest position by elite edge (+250); RP is the deepest (+66).
"Catcher is thin" gets repeated every season and almost never measured. Measured, the picture is different: the position where an elite player beats what you can pick up for free by the widest margin is OF, and the position where he barely beats it at all is RP.
Replacement is the average of the first three players at a position who would NOT be started in a twelve-team league, the best of what is sitting on waivers. The edge is what an elite player at that position gives you over him, and it is the only one of these numbers that changes a roster decision.
| Position | Startable | Replacement | Median starter | Elite | Elite edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OF | 36 | 212 | 296 | 461 | +250 |
| SP | 60 | 129 | 195 | 359 | +230 |
| 2B | 12 | 210 | 335 | 399 | +190 |
| SS | 12 | 247 | 322 | 399 | +152 |
| 3B | 12 | 227 | 335 | 355 | +128 |
| C | 12 | 166 | 261 | 293 | +127 |
| 1B | 12 | 265 | 358 | 387 | +123 |
| RP | 24 | 80 | 108 | 146 | +66 |
A big edge means paying up is justified: the drop to what you would otherwise run out is steep. A small one means the position is deep and the premium is mostly reputation, at RP the waiver player is worth 80 and the elite one 146, a difference of 66, which is not worth a high pick or a large trade.
The players carrying those edges.
| Position | Best available names |
|---|---|
| OF | [Pete Crow-Armstrong](#/player/691718), [Corbin Carroll](#/player/682998), [Fernando Tatis Jr.](#/player/665487) |
| SP | [Shohei (Two-Way) Ohtani](#/player/660271), [Jacob Misiorowski](#/player/694819), [Cam Schlittler](#/player/693645) |
| 2B | [Fernando Tatis Jr.](#/player/665487), [Ketel Marte](#/player/606466), [CJ Abrams](#/player/682928) |
| SS | [Elly De La Cruz](#/player/682829), [Bobby Witt Jr.](#/player/677951), [CJ Abrams](#/player/682928) |
| 3B | [Alex Bregman](#/player/608324), [Bo Bichette](#/player/666182), [Alec Bohm](#/player/664761) |
| C | [Ben Rice](#/player/700250), [William Contreras](#/player/661388), [Shea Langeliers](#/player/669127) |
| 1B | [Pete Alonso](#/player/624413), [Alec Burleson](#/player/676475), [Matt Olson](#/player/621566) |
| RP | [Luke Weaver](#/player/596133), [Jhoan Duran](#/player/661395), [Cade Smith](#/player/671922) |
Replacement level is what you can have for nothing. That is the correct baseline for a roster decision, a player is worth what he gives you over the alternative you would otherwise start, not what he produces in isolation.
Elite is the third-best player at the position rather than the first. The best player is usually unobtainable and using him would make every position look scarce; the third is someone a manager in a twelve-team league actually owns.
Players count at every position they qualify for, because that is how a roster uses them. Using only a primary position badly undercounts outfielders and depends on an ordering that carries no meaning.
The obvious version of this measure, how far value falls from the best player to the last startable one, mostly measures how good the best player is. Starting pitcher looks like the steepest cliff in baseball by that method, which says more about the top arm than about what you can stream.
Curated picks where the model has the highest decision conviction. Updated every render.
Run rankings to populate Market Edge.
Run rankings first.
Mark a player as drafted to get a recommendation.
Studies and awards - the research-side surfaces of the managr platform.
Live snapshot of the projection system.
Backtest, parsimony, ablation, and benchmark - one synthesized report. Output renders in Validation.
Final Value = Raw Projection × MasterConfidence × TeamContext. Each layer answers one question - no overlap.
Recency weighting: prior seasons contribute by recency (more recent = more weight) and sample size (more PA = more weight).
Shrinkage: observed rates regress toward position-specific population means by an amount inversely proportional to sample size. Catches small-sample outliers.
Quality-of-contact adjustments: xwOBA, barrel rate, and bat-tracking metrics replace luck-driven outcome stats with skill-driven ones.
PT modeling: projected PA is anchored to workload tier (full-time, regular, platoon, backup catcher) using historical role distributions.
Monte Carlo: N simulated seasons per player using projected mean + uncertainty, producing P10 / P50 / P90 distribution and bust%.
Confidence layers: four orthogonal multipliers: Roster (depth chart), Role (PT certainty), Sample (career PA), Market (consensus alignment). The Audit tab shows all four for every player.
VAR: Value Above Replacement at the player's primary position. Replacement levels are floored per position so SS scarcity doesn't artificially inflate stable middle infielders.
Tune component weights against historical seasons. Stored in session.
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Walk-forward backtests, calibration quality, and benchmark comparisons. Run walk-forward first - most tools depend on its pair pool.
Projects every historical batter-season from prior data only. Reports RMSE, MAE, Spearman ρ, hit rates. Populates the pair pool other validators use.
Walk-forward over historical seasons. Reports RMSE, MAE, Spearman ρ, top-N hit rates.
Distribution, uncertainty, per-archetype performance, calibrated tiers, draft sim.
Load any rival projection or ADP source. Auto-detects player_name + rank / adp / projected.
Where the model finds value the market is missing.
Curated picks from current rankings.
Where the model has measurable advantage.
The safety layer. Realism, false-confidence, forensics - what to remove.
The most important governance tools. Output renders in Validation.
Per-era ablation, error clusters, bias, correlations, removals. Each tells you what to remove. Run walk-forward first.
The smallest model that retains predictive power. Every feature beats the burden of proof.
Live pipeline status and data freshness.
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Last known status of each underlying data source.
Source status will appear once data has been refreshed.
Issues from the most recent data refresh, if any.
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MVP, Cy Young, Rookie of the Year - historical winners with their stats, plus model-predicted current-season winners.
Predictions from the current 2026 projection model. Top candidates per award based on projected fantasy points + advanced-stat underlying. League assignment from current team.
Coaching rosters for every MLB team plus a multi-year Fantasy Points Above Average ranking of every MLB coach.
Findings article + all-time top-100 performer leaderboard from every World Baseball Classic (2006-2026).
A growing collection of fantasy baseball studies. Each card opens a detail page with the methodology, the data sources, and (where the data exists today) live computed findings.
Active player injuries, refreshed from upstream sources.
| Player | Team | Pos | Status | Explanation | Replacement |
|---|
Enter players for each side, one per line. Values use your scoring weights and injury-adjusted projections.
| Player | Pos | ProjPts | Status |
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| Player | Pos | ProjPts | Status |
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Every signal, formula, and data source the model uses for player evaluation - organized by product.
Configure your draft session. This stays on this device only.