Positional Scarcity, September 21

OF is the scarcest position by elite edge (+235); RP is the deepest (+63).

"Catcher is thin" gets repeated every season and almost never measured. Measured, the picture is different: the position where an elite player beats what you can pick up for free by the widest margin is OF, and the position where he barely beats it at all is RP.

Scarcity by position

Replacement is the average of the first three players at a position who would NOT be started in a twelve-team league, the best of what is sitting on waivers. The edge is what an elite player at that position gives you over him, and it is the only one of these numbers that changes a roster decision.

What this actually means

A big edge means paying up is justified: the drop to what you would otherwise run out is steep. A small one means the position is deep and the premium is mostly reputation, at RP the waiver player is worth 75 and the elite one 138, a difference of 63, which is not worth a high pick or a large trade.

The elite tier at each position

The players carrying those edges.

How to read this

Replacement level is what you can have for nothing. That is the correct baseline for a roster decision, a player is worth what he gives you over the alternative you would otherwise start, not what he produces in isolation.

Elite is the third-best player at the position rather than the first. The best player is usually unobtainable and using him would make every position look scarce; the third is someone a manager in a twelve-team league actually owns.

Players count at every position they qualify for, because that is how a roster uses them. Using only a primary position badly undercounts outfielders and depends on an ordering that carries no meaning.

The obvious version of this measure, how far value falls from the best player to the last startable one, mostly measures how good the best player is. Starting pitcher looks like the steepest cliff in baseball by that method, which says more about the top arm than about what you can stream.

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