Positional Scarcity, August 10

SP is the scarcest position by elite edge (+274); 1B is the deepest (+58).

"Catcher is thin" gets repeated every season and almost never measured. Measured, the picture is different: the position where an elite player beats what you can pick up for free by the widest margin is SP, and the position where he barely beats it at all is 1B.

Scarcity by position

Replacement is the average of the first three players at a position who would NOT be started in a twelve-team league, the best of what is sitting on waivers. The edge is what an elite player at that position gives you over him, and it is the only one of these numbers that changes a roster decision.

What this actually means

A big edge means paying up is justified: the drop to what you would otherwise run out is steep. A small one means the position is deep and the premium is mostly reputation, at 1B the waiver player is worth 329 and the elite one 387, a difference of 58, which is not worth a high pick or a large trade.

The elite tier at each position

The players carrying those edges.

What this means

Start with the number that should end the argument: replacement level at first base is 329. That is the highest replacement figure on the board, higher than the median starter at shortstop's supporting cast, higher than an elite catcher. Pete Alonso projects for 387, and he is genuinely the best of the group. He is also worth 58 points more than the guy nobody drafted. First base is the position to punt, and it is not close.

The mechanism is not that first basemen are bad. It is that the skill first base asks for, hitting, is the one skill the widest pool of players has. There are 103 eligible, a 12-team league starts twelve, and the 13th-best is nearly as good as the 12th. Compare that to catcher, where the elite edge is +132 off a replacement of 150. The catcher pool collapses beneath the starters; the first base pool does not collapse at all, it just flattens out at 329 and sits there. Every dollar you spend closing a 58-point gap is a dollar not spent closing a 274-point one.

The best case against punting first base runs like this: 387 is a real total, and totals are what wins categories, not edges over hypothetical replacements. If your league's waiver wire never actually offers a 329 first baseman in April, because the ones projected there are the ones most likely to lose the job or the plate appearances, then the 58 is theoretical and the 387 is banked. I take that seriously. It is the honest version of the counterargument, and the data here cannot settle it, because eligibility counts tell you how many bodies exist, not how many are startable in week three. What the data does say is that you need that scenario to be true before paying up makes sense.

Spend at starting pitcher. The elite edge of +274 is the biggest on the board and it comes from both ends: Dylan Cease at 400 on top, replacement at 125 underneath. Two hundred arms are eligible and the median starter sits at 204, which means the middle of the pitching pool is only 79 points clear of the bottom while the top is 196 clear of the middle. That shape is the whole argument. Pitching is where the distance between good and available is largest, and it is the position where a single roster spot can move you the furthest. Outfield is the second buy for a similar reason: a median outfield starter projects 264 against a 220 replacement, a 44-point cushion, and then Pete Crow-Armstrong sits 215 above that median. The middle of the outfield is nearly worthless. The top of it is not.

The middle infield is the trap in the other direction. Shortstop looks scarce at +186, but the median starter is 357 against an elite 423, a 66-point spread across eleven roster spots. You are paying a premium for Bobby Witt Jr. to beat the shortstop you could have had by 66. Second and third base are flatter still, +145 and +144, both driven by low replacement rather than high tops.

The falsifier is simple and it is available in-season. Watch what actually clears waivers at first base in the first month. If the best free-agent first baseman in your league is projecting anywhere near 329, punt and never look back. If he is 280, the 58-point edge was understated and Alonso was priced correctly. The cost of being wrong here is one roster spot's worth of counting stats. The cost of being wrong on an ace is the season.

How to read this

Replacement level is what you can have for nothing. That is the correct baseline for a roster decision, a player is worth what he gives you over the alternative you would otherwise start, not what he produces in isolation.

Elite is the third-best player at the position rather than the first. The best player is usually unobtainable and using him would make every position look scarce; the third is someone a manager in a twelve-team league actually owns.

Players count at every position they qualify for, because that is how a roster uses them. Using only a primary position badly undercounts outfielders and depends on an ordering that carries no meaning.

The obvious version of this measure, how far value falls from the best player to the last startable one, mostly measures how good the best player is. Starting pitcher looks like the steepest cliff in baseball by that method, which says more about the top arm than about what you can stream.

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