8 bullpens have no clear owner of the ninth. Where the saves are actually gettable.
Saves are the category most often decided by a role rather than a skill, so this is the standing read on all 30 bullpens rather than a reaction to any one blown save. CCS is the closer-confidence score: save share over the last 30 and 14 days, leverage, role history, skills and usage. The number that matters is not any single arm's score but the GAP between the top two.
No arm has separated. These are the bullpens worth speculating in, because the cost of the second-best arm is near zero and the payoff if he takes the job is a full closer.
| Team | Arm | CCS | Proj SV (rest of season) | SV | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAA | [Ben Joyce](#/player/690829) | 56 | 6.8 | 5 | Committee, no clear owner |
| [Ryan Watson](#/player/670245) | 45 | 4.2 | 3 | Live alternative | |
| [Samy Natera Jr.](#/player/696519) | 22 | 0.0 | 3 | Deep | |
| ATH | [Hogan Harris](#/player/663687) | 54 | 9.7 | 9 | Committee, no clear owner |
| [Elvis Alvarado](#/player/665660) | 52 | 9.0 | 4 | Live alternative | |
| [Geoff Hartlieb](#/player/664129) | 20 | 0.0 | 0 | Deep | |
| CWS | [Grant Taylor](#/player/691799) | 53 | 8.6 | 8 | Committee, no clear owner |
| [Bryan Hudson](#/player/663542) | 50 | 7.6 | 5 | Live alternative | |
| [Sean Newcomb](#/player/656794) | 23 | 0.1 | 3 | Deep | |
| KC | [Steven Cruz](#/player/674444) | 51 | 8.9 | 7 | Committee, no clear owner |
| [Nate Pearson](#/player/663878) | 46 | 6.9 | 3 | Live alternative | |
| [Alex Lange](#/player/656638) | 32 | 2.1 | 10 | Deep | |
| SF | [Joel Kuhnel](#/player/669270) | 50 | 8.9 | 5 | Committee, no clear owner |
| [Dylan Smith](#/player/681916) | 33 | 2.8 | 3 | Live alternative | |
| [Trent Harris](#/player/805345) | 33 | 2.7 | 1 | Deep | |
| MIA | [Pete Fairbanks](#/player/664126) | 50 | 9.7 | 14 | Committee, no clear owner |
| [Calvin Faucher](#/player/676534) | 36 | 3.9 | 2 | Live alternative | |
| [Sandy Alcantara](#/player/645261) | 35 | 3.6 | 1 | Deep | |
| BAL | [Rico Garcia](#/player/670329) | 48 | 12.8 | 5 | Committee, no clear owner |
| [Andrew Kittredge](#/player/552640) | 44 | 10.4 | 9 | Live alternative | |
| [Josh Walker](#/player/677020) | 27 | 1.6 | 1 | Deep | |
| ARI | [Kevin Ginkel](#/player/656464) | 41 | 3.0 | 3 | Committee, no clear owner |
| [Brandyn Garcia](#/player/805299) | 40 | 2.8 | 5 | Live alternative | |
| [Dennis Santana](#/player/642701) | 34 | 1.6 | 1 | Deep |
A clear leader with a live arm behind him. Rosterable, but the handcuff is worth more here than anywhere else.
| Team | Arm | CCS | Proj SV (rest of season) | SV | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TB | [Bryan Baker](#/player/641329) | 64 | 21.1 | 23 | Has it for now |
| [Tyler Wells](#/player/669330) | 37 | 5.6 | 6 | Next in line | |
| [Cole Sulser](#/player/642121) | 33 | 3.7 | 3 | Deep | |
| LAD | [Tanner Scott](#/player/656945) | 63 | 21.5 | 15 | Has it for now |
| [Jack Dreyer](#/player/676263) | 28 | 1.8 | 2 | Next in line | |
| [Edgardo Henriquez](#/player/683618) | 27 | 1.4 | 2 | Deep | |
| MIN | [Yoendrys Gómez](#/player/672782) | 62 | 15.8 | 17 | Has it for now |
| [Travis Adams](#/player/701519) | 33 | 2.8 | 3 | Next in line | |
| [A.J. Minter](#/player/621345) | 30 | 2.1 | 1 | Deep | |
| WSH | [Erik Tolman](#/player/680899) | 57 | 18.7 | 3 | Has it for now |
| [Jack Sinclair](#/player/695378) | 34 | 4.7 | 1 | Next in line | |
| [Brad Lord](#/player/695418) | 20 | 0.0 | 1 | Deep | |
| NYM | [Kodai Senga](#/player/673540) | 56 | 14.2 | 7 | Has it for now |
| [Tobias Myers](#/player/668964) | 32 | 2.9 | 2 | Next in line | |
| [Dedniel Núñez](#/player/673380) | 31 | 2.5 | 1 | Deep | |
| CHC | [Ryan Zeferjahn](#/player/666171) | 53 | 14.8 | 4 | Has it for now |
| [Aaron Civale](#/player/650644) | 36 | 5.2 | 2 | Next in line | |
| [Ryan Rolison](#/player/669020) | 29 | 2.2 | 2 | Deep |
Wide separation at the top. Pay for the closer, ignore the handcuff.
| Team | Arm | CCS | Proj SV (rest of season) | SV | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CIN | [Emilio Pagán](#/player/641941) | 82 | 25.0 | 20 | Owns it |
| [Julian Garcia](#/player/670062) | 21 | 0.0 | 2 | Next in line | |
| [Tony Santillan](#/player/663574) | 20 | 0.0 | 5 | Deep | |
| HOU | [Josh Hader](#/player/623352) | 81 | 18.2 | 19 | Owns it |
| [Bryan Abreu](#/player/650556) | 26 | 0.5 | 3 | Next in line | |
| [AJ Blubaugh](#/player/805123) | 20 | 0.0 | 1 | Deep | |
| SEA | [Andrés Muñoz](#/player/662253) | 81 | 17.2 | 19 | Owns it |
| [Cooper Criswell](#/player/681867) | 20 | 0.0 | 1 | Next in line | |
| [Carlos Vargas](#/player/672841) | 20 | 0.0 | 0 | Deep | |
| ATL | [Raisel Iglesias](#/player/628452) | 81 | 19.8 | 18 | Owns it |
| [Didier Fuentes](#/player/800311) | 25 | 0.5 | 2 | Next in line | |
| [Brent Suter](#/player/608718) | 20 | 0.0 | 0 | Deep | |
| NYY | [David Bednar](#/player/670280) | 81 | 21.2 | 21 | Owns it |
| [John Schreiber](#/player/670167) | 29 | 1.4 | 1 | Next in line | |
| [Ryan Yarbrough](#/player/642232) | 27 | 0.8 | 3 | Deep | |
| TEX | [Jacob Latz](#/player/656641) | 81 | 19.0 | 24 | Owns it |
| [Jakob Junis](#/player/596001) | 33 | 2.1 | 3 | Next in line | |
| [Tyler Alexander](#/player/641302) | 20 | 0.0 | 0 | Deep | |
| CLE | [Cade Smith](#/player/671922) | 80 | 13.8 | 15 | Owns it |
| [Erik Sabrowski](#/player/681870) | 25 | 0.3 | 1 | Next in line | |
| [Hunter Gaddis](#/player/683769) | 20 | 0.0 | 0 | Deep | |
| TOR | [Louis Varland](#/player/686973) | 80 | 27.6 | 22 | Owns it |
| [Spencer Miles](#/player/693686) | 29 | 1.6 | 2 | Next in line | |
| [Paul Sewald](#/player/623149) | 27 | 1.1 | 11 | Deep | |
| DET | [Kenley Jansen](#/player/445276) | 80 | 17.2 | 14 | Owns it |
| [Tyler Holton](#/player/663947) | 22 | 0.0 | 2 | Next in line | |
| [Tyler Kinley](#/player/641755) | 20 | 0.0 | 1 | Deep | |
| COL | [Jordan Romano](#/player/605447) | 79 | 17.9 | 14 | Owns it |
| [Jimmy Herget](#/player/623474) | 22 | 0.0 | 2 | Next in line | |
| [Jaden Hill](#/player/677955) | 21 | 0.0 | 2 | Deep | |
| PIT | [Mason Montgomery](#/player/682254) | 77 | 19.2 | 14 | Owns it |
| [Gregory Soto](#/player/642397) | 30 | 1.7 | 5 | Next in line | |
| [Yohan Ramírez](#/player/670990) | 24 | 0.2 | 1 | Deep | |
| SD | [Mason Miller](#/player/695243) | 74 | 19.0 | 19 | Owns it |
| [Adrian Morejon](#/player/670970) | 28 | 1.2 | 2 | Next in line | |
| [Yuki Matsui](#/player/673513) | 27 | 0.8 | 1 | Deep | |
| MIL | [Trevor Megill](#/player/656730) | 74 | 20.9 | 20 | Owns it |
| [Chad Patrick](#/player/694477) | 30 | 1.7 | 3 | Next in line | |
| [Aaron Ashby](#/player/676879) | 25 | 0.4 | 2 | Deep | |
| PHI | [Jhoan Duran](#/player/661395) | 74 | 24.1 | 16 | Owns it |
| [Jonathan Bowlan](#/player/680742) | 26 | 0.9 | 2 | Next in line | |
| [Tim Mayza](#/player/641835) | 20 | 0.0 | 0 | Deep | |
| STL | [Riley O'Brien](#/player/676617) | 72 | 15.5 | 19 | Owns it |
| [George Soriano](#/player/666277) | 34 | 2.4 | 2 | Next in line | |
| [Ryne Stanek](#/player/592773) | 22 | 0.0 | 1 | Deep | |
| BOS | [Aroldis Chapman](#/player/547973) | 72 | 21.7 | 23 | Owns it |
| [Garrett Whitlock](#/player/676477) | 36 | 4.4 | 4 | Next in line | |
| [Erik Miller](#/player/669062) | 24 | 0.4 | 3 | Deep |
The cutoffs are calibrated to the league, not picked: across the 30 bullpens the top arm's CCS runs from 34 to 82 with a median of 74, so a leader in the 70s with 25-plus points of daylight is a real closer, while a leader in the 40s and 50s with company right behind him is a committee whatever the depth chart says.
Proj SV is the engine's expected saves for the rest of the season, which is the number to trade on, season saves are already banked and tell you about the past. A committee arm with meaningful projected saves is the cheapest source of the scarcest category in the game.
_Confidence scores generated September 18, 2026._
Curated picks where the model has the highest decision conviction. Updated every render.
Run rankings to populate Market Edge.
Run rankings first.
Mark a player as drafted to get a recommendation.
Studies and awards - the research-side surfaces of the managr platform.
Live snapshot of the projection system.
Backtest, parsimony, ablation, and benchmark - one synthesized report. Output renders in Validation.
Final Value = Raw Projection × MasterConfidence × TeamContext. Each layer answers one question - no overlap.
Recency weighting: prior seasons contribute by recency (more recent = more weight) and sample size (more PA = more weight).
Shrinkage: observed rates regress toward position-specific population means by an amount inversely proportional to sample size. Catches small-sample outliers.
Quality-of-contact adjustments: xwOBA, barrel rate, and bat-tracking metrics replace luck-driven outcome stats with skill-driven ones.
PT modeling: projected PA is anchored to workload tier (full-time, regular, platoon, backup catcher) using historical role distributions.
Monte Carlo: N simulated seasons per player using projected mean + uncertainty, producing P10 / P50 / P90 distribution and bust%.
Confidence layers: four orthogonal multipliers: Roster (depth chart), Role (PT certainty), Sample (career PA), Market (consensus alignment). The Audit tab shows all four for every player.
VAR: Value Above Replacement at the player's primary position. Replacement levels are floored per position so SS scarcity doesn't artificially inflate stable middle infielders.
Tune component weights against historical seasons. Stored in session.
-
-
-
Walk-forward backtests, calibration quality, and benchmark comparisons. Run walk-forward first - most tools depend on its pair pool.
Projects every historical batter-season from prior data only. Reports RMSE, MAE, Spearman ρ, hit rates. Populates the pair pool other validators use.
Walk-forward over historical seasons. Reports RMSE, MAE, Spearman ρ, top-N hit rates.
Distribution, uncertainty, per-archetype performance, calibrated tiers, draft sim.
Load any rival projection or ADP source. Auto-detects player_name + rank / adp / projected.
Where the model finds value the market is missing.
Curated picks from current rankings.
Where the model has measurable advantage.
The safety layer. Realism, false-confidence, forensics - what to remove.
The most important governance tools. Output renders in Validation.
Per-era ablation, error clusters, bias, correlations, removals. Each tells you what to remove. Run walk-forward first.
The smallest model that retains predictive power. Every feature beats the burden of proof.
Live pipeline status and data freshness.
-
Last known status of each underlying data source.
Source status will appear once data has been refreshed.
Issues from the most recent data refresh, if any.
-
MVP, Cy Young, Rookie of the Year - historical winners with their stats, plus model-predicted current-season winners.
Predictions from the current 2026 projection model. Top candidates per award based on projected fantasy points + advanced-stat underlying. League assignment from current team.
Coaching rosters for every MLB team plus a multi-year Fantasy Points Above Average ranking of every MLB coach.
Findings article + all-time top-100 performer leaderboard from every World Baseball Classic (2006-2026).
A growing collection of fantasy baseball studies. Each card opens a detail page with the methodology, the data sources, and (where the data exists today) live computed findings.
Active player injuries, refreshed from upstream sources.
| Player | Team | Pos | Status | Explanation | Replacement |
|---|
Enter players for each side, one per line. Values use your scoring weights and injury-adjusted projections.
| Player | Pos | ProjPts | Status |
|---|
| Player | Pos | ProjPts | Status |
|---|
Every signal, formula, and data source the model uses for player evaluation - organized by product.
Configure your draft session. This stays on this device only.