5 bullpens have no clear owner of the ninth. Where the saves are actually gettable.
Saves are the category most often decided by a role rather than a skill, so this is the standing read on all 30 bullpens rather than a reaction to any one blown save. CCS is the closer-confidence score: save share over the last 30 and 14 days, leverage, role history, skills and usage. The number that matters is not any single arm's score but the GAP between the top two.
No arm has separated. These are the bullpens worth speculating in, because the cost of the second-best arm is near zero and the payoff if he takes the job is a full closer.
| Team | Arm | CCS | Proj SV (rest of season) | SV | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CWS | [Bryan Hudson](#/player/663542) | 46 | 9.4 | 5 | Committee, no clear owner |
| [Grant Taylor](#/player/691799) | 42 | 7.4 | 7 | Live alternative | |
| [Sean Newcomb](#/player/656794) | 27 | 1.1 | 4 | Deep | |
| LAA | [Ben Joyce](#/player/690829) | 45 | 5.9 | 3 | Committee, no clear owner |
| [Ryan Watson](#/player/670245) | 31 | 1.6 | 2 | Live alternative | |
| [Samy Natera Jr.](#/player/696519) | 29 | 1.1 | 3 | Deep | |
| SF | [Dylan Smith](#/player/681916) | 45 | 8.2 | 4 | Committee, no clear owner |
| [Joel Kuhnel](#/player/669270) | 38 | 5.0 | 6 | Live alternative | |
| [Carson Seymour](#/player/693313) | 31 | 2.5 | 1 | Deep | |
| ARI | [Kevin Ginkel](#/player/656464) | 43 | 2.8 | 3 | Committee, no clear owner |
| [Brandyn Garcia](#/player/805299) | 43 | 2.7 | 5 | Live alternative | |
| [Juan Morillo](#/player/666661) | 40 | 2.2 | 2 | Deep | |
| CHC | [Jacob Webb](#/player/657097) | 38 | 8.1 | 8 | Committee, no clear owner |
| [Ryan Zeferjahn](#/player/666171) | 35 | 6.1 | 4 | Live alternative | |
| [Aaron Civale](#/player/650644) | 34 | 5.2 | 2 | Deep |
A clear leader with a live arm behind him. Rosterable, but the handcuff is worth more here than anywhere else.
| Team | Arm | CCS | Proj SV (rest of season) | SV | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TB | [Bryan Baker](#/player/641329) | 69 | 22.3 | 24 | Has it for now |
| [Tyler Wells](#/player/669330) | 44 | 8.4 | 6 | Next in line | |
| [Steven Matz](#/player/571927) | 24 | 0.5 | 1 | Deep | |
| WSH | [Erik Tolman](#/player/680899) | 68 | 21.3 | 1 | Has it for now |
| [Clayton Beeter](#/player/690925) | 27 | 1.3 | 8 | Next in line | |
| [Brad Lord](#/player/695418) | 20 | 0.0 | 1 | Deep | |
| LAD | [Tanner Scott](#/player/656945) | 66 | 21.5 | 16 | Has it for now |
| [Evan Phillips](#/player/623465) | 29 | 1.9 | 1 | Next in line | |
| [Edgardo Henriquez](#/player/683618) | 28 | 1.5 | 2 | Deep | |
| ATH | [Hogan Harris](#/player/663687) | 62 | 13.7 | 10 | Has it for now |
| [Elvis Alvarado](#/player/665660) | 44 | 6.6 | 5 | Next in line | |
| [Chris Roycroft](#/player/688297) | 21 | 0.0 | 1 | Deep | |
| KC | [Steven Cruz](#/player/674444) | 61 | 14.0 | 6 | Has it for now |
| [Alex Lange](#/player/656638) | 33 | 2.7 | 10 | Next in line | |
| [Craig Kimbrel](#/player/518886) | 33 | 2.6 | 1 | Deep | |
| MIA | [Calvin Faucher](#/player/676534) | 57 | 11.3 | 2 | Has it for now |
| [Pete Fairbanks](#/player/664126) | 41 | 5.1 | 13 | Next in line | |
| [Victor Vodnik](#/player/680767) | 21 | 0.0 | 1 | Deep | |
| BAL | [Andrew Kittredge](#/player/552640) | 53 | 17.0 | 9 | Has it for now |
| [Cam Sanders](#/player/676742) | 28 | 2.2 | 3 | Next in line | |
| [Yennier Cano](#/player/666974) | 27 | 1.7 | 3 | Deep |
Wide separation at the top. Pay for the closer, ignore the handcuff.
| Team | Arm | CCS | Proj SV (rest of season) | SV | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | [Aroldis Chapman](#/player/547973) | 89 | 23.6 | 24 | Owns it |
| [Garrett Whitlock](#/player/676477) | 33 | 2.2 | 3 | Next in line | |
| [Erik Miller](#/player/669062) | 22 | 0.0 | 2 | Deep | |
| ATL | [Raisel Iglesias](#/player/628452) | 87 | 21.0 | 19 | Owns it |
| [Didier Fuentes](#/player/800311) | 31 | 1.6 | 3 | Next in line | |
| [Dylan Dodd](#/player/689266) | 20 | 0.0 | 0 | Deep | |
| HOU | [Josh Hader](#/player/623352) | 87 | 21.0 | 19 | Owns it |
| [Bryan Abreu](#/player/650556) | 31 | 1.7 | 5 | Next in line | |
| [AJ Blubaugh](#/player/805123) | 21 | 0.0 | 1 | Deep | |
| CIN | [Emilio Pagán](#/player/641941) | 86 | 25.3 | 20 | Owns it |
| [Julian Garcia](#/player/670062) | 25 | 0.4 | 2 | Next in line | |
| [Pierce Johnson](#/player/572955) | 21 | 0.0 | 1 | Deep | |
| SEA | [Andrés Muñoz](#/player/662253) | 86 | 16.4 | 17 | Owns it |
| [Cooper Criswell](#/player/681867) | 21 | 0.0 | 1 | Next in line | |
| [Seranthony Domínguez](#/player/622554) | 21 | 0.0 | 1 | Deep | |
| NYY | [David Bednar](#/player/670280) | 86 | 23.6 | 20 | Owns it |
| [Tim Hill](#/player/657612) | 26 | 0.6 | 2 | Next in line | |
| [John Schreiber](#/player/670167) | 20 | 0.0 | 0 | Deep | |
| COL | [Jordan Romano](#/player/605447) | 83 | 19.5 | 15 | Owns it |
| [Jimmy Herget](#/player/623474) | 22 | 0.0 | 2 | Next in line | |
| [Jaden Hill](#/player/677955) | 21 | 0.0 | 2 | Deep | |
| MIL | [Trevor Megill](#/player/656730) | 83 | 21.2 | 19 | Owns it |
| [Aaron Ashby](#/player/676879) | 30 | 1.4 | 2 | Next in line | |
| [Abner Uribe](#/player/682842) | 22 | 0.0 | 2 | Deep | |
| TEX | [Jacob Latz](#/player/656641) | 81 | 20.9 | 23 | Owns it |
| [Jakob Junis](#/player/596001) | 34 | 2.5 | 3 | Next in line | |
| [Tyler Alexander](#/player/641302) | 21 | 0.0 | 2 | Deep | |
| STL | [Riley O'Brien](#/player/676617) | 81 | 18.6 | 22 | Owns it |
| [Ryne Stanek](#/player/592773) | 29 | 1.1 | 1 | Next in line | |
| [George Soriano](#/player/666277) | 26 | 0.6 | 1 | Deep | |
| MIN | [Yoendrys Gómez](#/player/672782) | 80 | 23.5 | 18 | Owns it |
| [Andrew Morris](#/player/702193) | 26 | 0.7 | 2 | Next in line | |
| [Taylor Rogers](#/player/573124) | 23 | 0.1 | 0 | Deep | |
| DET | [Kenley Jansen](#/player/445276) | 80 | 15.0 | 12 | Owns it |
| [Tyler Holton](#/player/663947) | 27 | 0.7 | 2 | Next in line | |
| [Kyle Finnegan](#/player/640448) | 25 | 0.4 | 1 | Deep | |
| TOR | [Louis Varland](#/player/686973) | 78 | 28.0 | 23 | Owns it |
| [Paul Sewald](#/player/623149) | 36 | 4.9 | 14 | Next in line | |
| [Spencer Miles](#/player/693686) | 30 | 2.2 | 2 | Deep | |
| SD | [Mason Miller](#/player/695243) | 75 | 15.5 | 18 | Owns it |
| [Bradgley Rodriguez](#/player/699134) | 35 | 2.5 | 2 | Next in line | |
| [Adrian Morejon](#/player/670970) | 31 | 1.5 | 2 | Deep | |
| PIT | [Mason Montgomery](#/player/682254) | 75 | 17.7 | 10 | Owns it |
| [Gregory Soto](#/player/642397) | 32 | 2.1 | 8 | Next in line | |
| [Yohan Ramírez](#/player/670990) | 25 | 0.4 | 1 | Deep | |
| CLE | [Cade Smith](#/player/671922) | 75 | 11.2 | 14 | Owns it |
| [Erik Sabrowski](#/player/681870) | 36 | 2.1 | 1 | Next in line | |
| [Tim Herrin](#/player/682120) | 20 | 0.0 | 0 | Deep | |
| NYM | [Kodai Senga](#/player/673540) | 71 | 16.1 | 7 | Owns it |
| [Devin Williams](#/player/642207) | 32 | 1.9 | 14 | Next in line | |
| [Daniel Duarte](#/player/650960) | 26 | 0.6 | 2 | Deep | |
| PHI | [Jhoan Duran](#/player/661395) | 71 | 21.0 | 17 | Owns it |
| [Jonathan Bowlan](#/player/680742) | 31 | 2.4 | 2 | Next in line | |
| [Orion Kerkering](#/player/689147) | 27 | 1.1 | 1 | Deep |
The cutoffs are calibrated to the league, not picked: across the 30 bullpens the top arm's CCS runs from 34 to 82 with a median of 74, so a leader in the 70s with 25-plus points of daylight is a real closer, while a leader in the 40s and 50s with company right behind him is a committee whatever the depth chart says.
Proj SV is the engine's expected saves for the rest of the season, which is the number to trade on, season saves are already banked and tell you about the past. A committee arm with meaningful projected saves is the cheapest source of the scarcest category in the game.
_Confidence scores generated September 8, 2026._
Curated picks where the model has the highest decision conviction. Updated every render.
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| Player | Pos | ProjPts | Status |
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