Closer Report, August 11

6 bullpens have no clear owner of the ninth. Where the saves are actually gettable.

Saves are the category most often decided by a role rather than a skill, so this is the standing read on all 30 bullpens rather than a reaction to any one blown save. CCS is the closer-confidence score: save share over the last 30 and 14 days, leverage, role history, skills and usage. The number that matters is not any single arm's score but the GAP between the top two.

Committees: this is where saves are gettable

No arm has separated. These are the bullpens worth speculating in, because the cost of the second-best arm is near zero and the payoff if he takes the job is a full closer.

Leaning: he has it, but not by much

A clear leader with a live arm behind him. Rosterable, but the handcuff is worth more here than anywhere else.

Locked down

Wide separation at the top. Pay for the closer, ignore the handcuff.

What this means

Jacob Webb is the name to argue about. A closer-confidence score of 42 says the Cubs have not separated him from anyone, yet 13.7 projected saves is more than Kenley Jansen, Gregory Soto or Grant Taylor are given while sitting on a clear lean. Those two numbers are measuring different things and the gap between them is the whole point: confidence is about separation, projected saves is about volume. Chicago is expected to generate enough ninth innings that even the front man in a genuine three-way split clears thirteen, and Ryan Zeferjahn at 6.7 confirms the chances are there to be taken rather than that Webb has locked them down. If your league values saves at the margin, Webb is the best claim on this table, because you are buying a share of a large pie instead of all of a small one.

Andrew Kittredge is the same trade in a slightly worse uniform. Baltimore gives him 11.0 with a confidence of 48, and the drop to Rico Garcia at 3.5 and Yennier Cano at 2.7 is steeper than what the Cubs show behind Webb. Steeper is good. It means the committee has a shape, and shapes resolve. I would rather hold Kittredge than Steven Cruz, whose 9.1 sits on top of Alex Lange at 6.6 and Nate Pearson at 4.3, three arms bunched inside twelve confidence points. Kansas City is the committee least likely to sort itself out, and rostering any one of those three costs you a bench spot to get maybe six saves.

The Dodgers are the case a smart reader should push back on. Edwin Díaz at 54 and Tanner Scott at 53 is as close to a coin flip as this table produces, and the projected saves follow, 10.1 against 9.6. The argument against treating that as a real split is obvious: Díaz is the better pitcher and reputation usually wins the ninth inning by May. But the model is not pricing reputation, it is pricing observed separation, and there is none. If you already own Díaz, the honest read is that you own roughly half a closer. What would settle it is narrow and easy to watch: give it two weeks and see who takes the second save of a back-to-back, and who gets the one-run ninth against the top of an order. If Díaz takes both, the 54 is stale and he is a top-ten closer again. If Scott takes either, hold him too or trade one before the market notices.

Louis Varland is where I would spend a claim if the ninth inning matters more to me than the roster spot. Toronto is labeled leaning, not locked, but a confidence of 69 with 19.0 projected saves puts him ahead of Devin Williams, who carries a 73 and only 10.8. That contrast is the most useful thing on the table. Williams owns his job and his team is not expected to hand him chances. Varland has a job that is not quite his and a queue behind him, Tyler Rogers at 3.6 and Lazaro Estrada at zero, that suggests nobody is coming. I will take the volume.

Beyond that, the locked tier is unremarkable and you should not spend a claim inside it. Bryan Baker at 29.6, Trevor Megill at 25.5 and Jacob Latz at 24.2 are already owned in every league that counts saves. The risk in the committee plays is real and specific: Webb and Kittredge can each go to zero inside a week if the manager picks someone else, and you will have burned a claim on a middle reliever. That is a cheap way to be wrong. Losing a full season of a closer-adjacent share is not.

How to read this

The cutoffs are calibrated to the league, not picked: across the 30 bullpens the top arm's CCS runs from 34 to 82 with a median of 74, so a leader in the 70s with 25-plus points of daylight is a real closer, while a leader in the 40s and 50s with company right behind him is a committee whatever the depth chart says.

Proj SV is the engine's expected saves for the rest of the season, which is the number to trade on, season saves are already banked and tell you about the past. A committee arm with meaningful projected saves is the cheapest source of the scarcest category in the game.

_Confidence scores generated August 10, 2026._

All articles · Redraft rankings · Dynasty rankings